<p>The government's claim that an anti-monarchist movement aims to overthrow the monarchy may backfire and negatively affect the institution unless the Abhisit Vejjajiva government produces evidence soon to back up the allegation, noted historian and former rector of Thammasat University Charnvit Kasetsiri has warned.</p>

<p>Bangkok/Brussels, 30 April 2010: The Thai political system has broken down and seems incapable of pulling the country back from the brink of widespread conflict. The stand-off in the streets of Bangkok between the government and Red Shirt protesters is worsening and could deteriorate into an undeclared civil war. The country's polarisation demands immediate action in the form of assistance from neutral figures from outside. It is time for Thailand to consider help from international friends to avoid a slide into wider violence. Even the most advanced democracies have accepted this.</p>

<p>(New York, April 30, 2010) &ndash; The Thai government should prosecute perpetrators of political violence on all sides to stop the increasingly deadly conflict in Thailand, Human Rights Watch said today.&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>Somsak Jeamtheerasakul&rsquo;s analysis and observations of the current situation. &nbsp;Translated and shortened by Prachatai English.</em></p> <p>The government&rsquo;s use of force to crack down on the red shirts at Rajprasong now seems practically inevitable, as does the collision course taken by Thaksin and the red-shirt leaders, including the possible use of the black-clad men who are the latter&rsquo;s secret weapons.</p>

<p>In December 2008 the UDD leader Natthawut Saikua made a beautiful speech to the crowd of redshirts in front of parliament. Invoking powerfully elemental imagery, this speech (excerpt translated below) portrays the redshirts in the figurative form of the sons and daughters of the land who know full well that a vast distance separates them from the sky.</p>

<p>Police visited the red-shirt FM97.25 MHz community radio station in Samut Prakan province's Samrong area yesterday afternoon to warn the 300 red shirts protecting the station they were breaking the emergency decree and could face up to two years in prison as well as Bt40,000 in fines.</p>

<p>Insisting that red-shirt protesters abide by the principles of non-violence may not be enough to prevent them from &quot;being crushed by the Army&quot;, Thammasat University historian Thanet Aphornsuvan warned yesterday.</p>

<p>On-line political writer Wattana Sukwat, one of the many writers having their content blocked or deleted by the ICT Ministry under emegency rule said the removal of his 200 or so articles is not just undemocratic but akin to deleting his on-line identity.</p> <p>&quot;I am a like matrix removed [in the Hollywood movie 'The Matrix'] and no longer exists [in cycber space] ,&quot; he said yesterday (Thursday).</p>

<p>On 21 April, pro-government groups, including the Multicoloured Group and Silom Group, which according to the <a href="http://breakingnews.nationchannel.com/read.php?newsid=444253">Nation Channel</a> website, consist of people from Silom, Klongtoey and Thanon Tok, gathered at the Dusit Thani corner of Silom Rd, opposite the red shirts&rsquo; entrenchment in front of Lumphini Park, just across Rama IV Rd. &nbsp;The government supporters shouted at the red shirts to go away, and gave support to the military troops deployed there.</p>

<p>On 20 April, Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, CRES and army spokesperson, said that all CRES intelligence sources had reported that a group of terrorists among the red shirts were preparing weapons including grenades, Molotov cocktails, sharpened wooden rods in the form of spears and arrows, wooden sticks with nails, and acid.</p>

<p>On Monday evening, this writer ran into a fellow journalist from a major newspaper at the red-shirt rally site and we shared our views about the protest. Here are some excerpts of the conversation:</p> <p>She: Most protesters are from the provinces and likely paid if not &quot;organised&quot; into coming to Bangkok.</p> <p>Me: Yes, there are many rural poor people, but there is no proof as to whether they've been paid. They mostly forged an alliance by relying on politicians to advance their political cause. It's not that different from the yellow-shirt middle class, who depended on the discourses of the old elite, the army and royalist ideology to advance their political agenda. Both groups forged alliances, period.</p>

<p>All sides in Thailand&rsquo;s widening political conflict should immediately commit to ending human rights abuses, Amnesty International said today. &nbsp; Amnesty International welcomes the Thai government's pledge to investigate promptly, effectively, and impartially the recent violence, and urges it to provide accountability for any violations by security forces as well as abuses by violent protesters.</p>