Cyclone Nagris has caused extensive damage in Burma. According to the latest reports from the official TV news in Burma, at least 78,000 people have died and 56,000 are missing. Estimates from groups concerned with the incident even speculate the death toll could be over one hundred thousand.

The UN’s World Food Program laments the fact that 70% of those in need have received no food as the Burmese junta continues to deny access into the country by officials from various international relief organizations. It gets even worse as the available food has not been effectively distributed to the disaster victims.

International medical teams reveal that a large number of Nagris survivors in the Irrawaddy basin are suffering from diarrhoea due to the scarcity of clean water. Many of them are affected by respiratory problems as well.

Yet, the Burmese junta remains adamant about blocking international aid.

Lately, Prachatai got to talk to two women activists, Charm Tong, from the Shan Women’s Action Network (SWAN) and Hseng Noung, SWAN’s advisor and Chairperson of the Board of Directors of the Women’s League of Burma (WLB) concerning the Nagris disaster and the reluctance of the Burmese junta to accept international aid. Meanwhile they have even proceeded with the planned national constitutional referendum.

It shows how Nagris has become politicized and the cold-bloodedness of the Burmese junta will result in a double tragedy for the peoples of Burma.

What is your take on this event?

Hseng Noung: I am saddened by the severe impacts that my sisters and brothers in Burma have to suffer and even more upset with the actions of the Burmese junta after the event as they continued to block attempts by the international community to provide relief aid to the suffering people. They simply cling to power and moved forward with the national referendum on 10 May.

Charm Tong: Since the day the Burmese junta asked their people to cast their votes, many individuals, groups working with displaced people and I made our demand that efforts be made to facilitate the immediate flow of aid including medical and other stuff, and relief personnel should be allowed in, even without official permission. But more than ten days have passed, nothing has happened. A few people have been allowed to in to help people.

Even now, it is obvious that our pleas have fallen on deaf ears in the Burmese junta. People are ready to help and the relief aid is available, but the Burmese military simply stands to block them and make the whole process redundant. They are reluctant to see the monks get help, as well as people’s organizations. Even when local organizations or the monks try to help, they have to face persecution from the military. What happens!

Therefore, we have made it clear that if this pattern persists, destitute people will get no help. They will have no water, no rice, no electricity, nothing. The dead bodies float in front of them every day. Children are traumatized by the loss of their parents and become orphans. Who will look after them then? Some women are expecting and a few others have even delivered on the day the disaster struck. They urgently need help, but the Burmese junta simply stops people from getting the needed help. It was only on 12 or 13 May that UN agencies were given permission to enter and the US plane to deliver stuff. But no experts have been allowed in yet.

Hseng Noung: The Burmese junta does not want to expose themselves to the international community. They simply want to help the military cadres first and the people later.

How do you feel about the UN threatening to impose the Right to Protect to gain access into Burma, if the government continues to deny help from outside?

Hseng Noung: Around 1957, the United Nations imposed the Responsibility to Protect or R2P, in order to be allowed to enter a country to provide help to member countries, particularly during a crisis like the one happening now in Burma. Basically, they need no permission from the host country. Many countries are supporting this initiative in order to get help delivered to the suffering villagers.

There has been some news, for example on 8 May, that the Burmese military, some commandos, raided and seized 20 trucks belonging to local community organizations along the Chinese-Burmese border in Shan State. The trucks were full of food and stuff to be delivered to the disaster-stricken communities. The villagers said they were happy to give away some to the Burmese military, but they simply took the whole lot for themselves. It was like stealing. And we have no idea if the seized stuff would be later distributed. They might put some labels to claim the stuff belongs to them and then give it to people. But they block even attempts by local people who try help themselves and international organizations as well.

Lately, it was reported that the Burmese military has begun to force people to work as porters and labourers claiming it part of the Nagris relief efforts. But we are not convinced of the purpose. They do not even let reporters go inside. But as more people begin to have more access there, we get to see more pictures of the vulnerabilities.

The more they attempt to block aid and information, the more they lose credibility and it seems the peoples of Burma get used to this behaviour of the Burmese military.

Hseng Noung: People know they cannot trust the Burmese junta. Similarly, leaders of countries around the world stated that they trust no leaders in Burma, and they cannot rest assured as to where the donated stuff will be kept, where it will be taken to, and if it will reach the disaster area. These are the concerns of those who want to help.

There are reports that in Rangoon, around 8 May, members of the United Solidarity Development Association (USDA, a militia group founded by the Burmese junta ) started to sell corrugated roofing sheets, which were supposed to be given free of charge to people in need. So it is obvious that they have no intention whatsoever to help people.

As we said many years ago, we are concerned about this. Even before Nagris came, efforts by UN agencies or NGOs to help people in Shan State have been hindered by the government. Their work was confined in certain area and access to the area has been made difficult. And apart from the scarcity of food, local people have to suffer a lack of medicine, too. But the Burmese military insists that no one can go in. They attempt to control the operation of relief organizations.

The UN Secretary-General made several phone calls to Senior General Than Shwe, but received no answer. Not many people realize what has been happening in Burma. The government cares nothing for the welfare of its people or ethnic groups. They simply release some pictures to show that they have delivered stuff to certain areas. That’s it.

In this situation, how would you like the Thai government or ASEAN to act to provide humanitarian help?

Charm Tong: The Thai government and ASEAN should concern themselves with politics as well. They have to have the guts to call for political change in Burma. Of course, the work to deliver the relief must be there. But the issue is there is no lack of stuff, but the willingness of the Burmese military to allow relief personnel to enter and provide timely services.

If it continues like this, will sanctions still be a solution?

Hseng Noung: Boycotts or sanctions are a difficult issue and it may affect international relations. It is a sensitive issue. We need to find opportunities to dialogue and keep criticizing and warning them against pursuing solely business interests. The process must be two-way and long-term. We need to work on the attitudes as well. We need to work to change the attitudes among the Chinese, Thai and Burmese administrations, and well the people. We cannot just live a happy life and ignore injustices in our neighbouring countries.

There have been reports that some military officers feel discontented with the Burmese junta for their refusal to help their family members who suffer from Cyclone Nagris.

Charm Tong: Those who were struck by the tragedy in the Irrawady Basin and Rangoon will include families of military officers for sure. And instead of giving help, the government simply blocks attempts to deliver it. It should make some of the military officers angry. I have heard this news, but not in detail. Some military officers who learned that their families had been affected by the Cyclone were denied permission to go and help their families. Otherwise, help has not been made fully available to people, so they become angry. But this feeling should happen among the low ranking officers, but not the top brass.

How much are people in Burma aware of the disaster?

Hseng Noung: Barely. There have been attempts to block information from reaching local people. Many of them get news from listening to foreign radio stations. The TV which belongs to the Burmese junta simply features news about the military giving help to people. But to get real information, local people often tune in to either BBC or VOA.

Lately, the Burmese military has admitted that there have been more than 70,000 deaths whereas other estimates go as high as more than a hundred thousand.

Charm Tong: It is estimated by local relief organizations that there are more a hundred thousand deaths and the number keeps rising. The solution is fairly easy, i.e. the Burmese junta should just allow people who want to help to get in. But they are reluctant to do so. No one is forcing them to do this. They decided to create the conditions themselves.

What do you think about Dr. Pornthip’s idea to help with the post-mortem investigation?

Charm Tong: The Burmese military has no interest in corpses.

Is it time for ASEAN to change its role in its approach to Burma as a member?

Hseng Noung: It is a good opportunity for ASEAN to do something about Burma. They should work out some measures to deal with the current situation. Should ASEAN fail to pressure the Burmese junta to allow international help, we ASEAN members should feel ashamed about that.

We need to review that in the ten years past since Burma became an ASEAN member, the situation has not got better. Those who perished in the cyclone are also ASEAN members and thus ASEAN is obliged to look after them. But if ASEAN fails to act and cannot convince the Burmese junta to receive help, the situation will not get better. Some ASEAN country members brought stuff to the country, left it there, and went back. But in fact ASEAN can do more.

What can ASEAN do?

Hseng Noung: They should promote dialogue. So far there has been procrastination and nothing has worked. The dialogue will even benefit them, not just others. But the tragedy this time simply convinces people the world over about what we have been trying to say and what has been taken for granted by many. The people of Burma are not just suffering a natural disaster; they are left to their own devices with no help. It is like they are struck again by a man-made disaster. And they will suffer from water borne diseases and it will become an epidemic. Then, Burma, the whole country will no longer be safe to its neighbours. We need to think and act seriously to tackle the issue.

Now it is time for immediate relief and reconstruction, maybe in the first week, or first two or three weeks. Just think how many people from Burma are in Thailand now? Why did they come here? And now, won’t people affected by Nagris consider coming here? How can they earn their living there? The affected area used to boast the biggest rice production in Burma. With this total loss, how will people bear with this mentally? They surely want to escape from there, and Thailand is just miles away. Eventually, they will manage to cross over here, and what can we do?

Thus, we cannot let it go on like this; we have to stop the cycle. We need to find long-term solutions and ASEAN should think about this.

Given continuing pressure from international community, will the Burmese junta give in?

Hseng Noung: They might. But there are hopes among some groups that there may be some internal change within the military. If there is any clash, each of the Burmese military officers will just find a way to survive.

Nevertheless, the military structure has such deep roots in society. Well entrenched from top to bottom, and it cannot be easily broken down. Some low ranking officers may not like to follow some orders, but given the well-established chain of command, it is hard for them to refuse.

Thus, we need to do something to shake up the structure. We simply hope that there will be some internal cracks among the military officers. But this has to combine with other efforts and we all have to continue our work.

Let’s get back to the constitutional referendum, which turned out to be a 92.4% “yes” vote. What can we do now?

Hseng Noung: We expected this to happen, and it was no surprise at all. The Burmese junta already had the desired result in mind as far as the constitutional referendum was concerned. And the result was no surprise.

The referendum was a scandal with people being forced to vote, and many tricks were used. Reportedly, there were more than 30 million eligible voters, but the Burmese junta printed just ten thousand copies of the draft Constitution. They even sold these copies to people. People were forced to vote, and one family member was allowed to vote on behalf of the whole family.

Both Mr Ibrahim Gambari, the UN Special Rapporteur on Burma who went to visit the country lately and the National League for Democracy (NLD) Party’s leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, proposed the idea of Responsibility to Protect and urged UN to act on this right. Many groups came out to support this idea, but still the Burmese junta refuses to yield to this demand. Meanwhile, China and Russia are reluctant to pressure Burma, claiming it is an internal matter. And the Burmese junta insists on maintaining the current policy.

Charm Tong: Certainly, the Burmese junta will not give in. Everyone says they will change, but they won’t. They are even planning for the next election already and they certainly have control over politics in the future. The draft Constitution is simply a roadmap for them to continue to hold on to their political power. The new Constitution allows the military to appoint 25% of members of the Parliament.

With this continuing, will the people from Burma continue to fight?

Hseng Noung: Of course the people from Burma will continue to fight. According to the government’s roadmap, in the next two years, in 2010, a general election will be held. There are many factors that we need to analyze. There are both the ceasefire groups and non-ceasefire groups. And there are some political parties that ran in the previous election. They have to plan and set out a strategy among themselves as to what to do after this constitutional referendum.

Will Daw Suu Kyi’s NLD have a chance?

Hseng Noung: Well, it is difficult to say since no political parties have participated in the constitutional drafting since the beginning, not just the NLD. Even the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) was also excluded from the process. The two parties have to think how to continue their struggle.

Is it possible that when the election comes, various groups, including the peoples of Burma, will rise up again?

Charm Tong: Everyone thinks just like that. Now people are very angry and it is possible that they will rise up again, just like the incident in last September. No one knew before that there would be such a massive uprising. But whether the Burmese government will allow this to happen and to what extent is another matter. But what we have been calling for is a tripartite dialogue without which things will get messed up.

Hseng Noung: So one solution is, since the Constitution has come out, that all groups need to talk and participate in the process including the military, ethnic groups and those winning the election in 1990 who have more legitimacy than other groups. After that, an interim government should be established and a new Constitution drafted. If we follow the process things will get better and no one will get hurt. But I have no idea if the military regime will accept this.

There certainly are ways and opportunities, but politically, we have no clue if the Burmese will welcome change.

Translated by Pipob Udomittipong