At approximately 6 pm on 23 December (election day), at the Political Science Faculty of Chiang Mai University (CMU), the results were presented of an exit poll taken in Chiang Mai Constituency 1, comprising Mueang, Hang Dong, Saraphi and San Kamphaeng districts, with a sample of 2,096 voters.

The exit poll for Constituency 1 showed that 45.7% of voters in Mueang District, 55.8% in San Kamphaeng District, 50.8% in Saraphi District and 66.6% in Hang Dong District voted for the People Power Party. The second placed party was the Democrats. The reasons governing the choice of MP, in both the constituency and party list votes, were party affiliation and party policies, rather than the candidate and party leader. Also, 41.3% of the sample in Mueang District believed that after the elections, politics will be stable, while 33% thought there will be confusion.

Dr Jantana Suttijaree, Chair of the Department of Political Science of CMU said that the exit poll was one part of a research project of the Faculty of Political Science and Public Administration into the political behaviour of people both before and after the election. It was necessary to explain the political and social implications rather than just speak in terms of numbers. At present only the results of the exit poll were being presented; the full research recommendations would be presented at a later opportunity.

Assoc Prof Pairat Trakarnsirinont, Dean of the Faculty of Political Science and Public Administration of CMU, said that Constituency 1 was studied because it was representative of Chiang Mai. The other 3 constituencies in Chiang Mai were not representative of urban areas.

Dr Jantana said that voters in Chiang Mai Constituency 1 voted for the People Power Party in the hope that if PP had many MPs, this would create stability. If the Democrat Party led a coalition government, there may be no stability, which could lead to another coup.

It was also noticeable that the 3 districts outside the city saw votes for constituency MPs distributed among different parties.¹ This was due to individualism in personal preferences, the former leader and patron-client relationships. But for the party list MPs, these voters chose the People Power Party. The intention was to spread votes around.

Under the 2007 Constitution, 80 MPs are elected by proportional representation on party lists and 400 by constituency. This ratio influences the way people think, both candidate and voters. It means that candidates do not stress party policy, but look for votes for themselves based on their personal influence. Political parties are not institutionalized and there is a tendency for candidates to campaign as mavericks. Instead of campaigning with candidates of the same party in their constituency, they speak of their own achievements, of their family, and do not say much about their party.

Also, in Mueang District, which has many government offices and military posts, ‘guided democracy' is still found to have infiltrated the government system, which is an interesting variable in Chiang Mai Constituency 1.

Assoc Prof Pairat also said that if, after the election, the balance of power shifted, not only the Internal Security Act, but many other laws passed by the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) will definitely be reviewed. Whether there is a re-alignment or not will determine whether laws passed by the NLA will be torn up or not.

Jantana Suttijaree: Politics in a Time of Coalition Governments and the Legacy of Thaksin

Dr Jantana Suttijaree, Chair of the Department of Political Science of the Faculty of Political Science and Public Administration of CMU gave an interview to Prachatai on her analysis of the political situation shortly after the votes were counted in the 23 December 2007 election. Dr Jantana thinks that political situation after the election will be polarized around the People Power Party and the Democrat Party. Both will compete to form a government, depending on who will be better able to induce other political parties to join a coalition. Medium-sized parties like Matchimathipatai, Chat Thai, Ruam Jai Thai Chat Pattana, Pracharaj and Pue Pandin will have bargaining power in deciding which side to join.

According to Dr Jantana, the Democrat Party will find it hard to form a government at this time but it may be able to compete in bargaining for political power. It may be able to pull the Pue Pandin Party, which tends to side with the Democrats, while Matchimathipatai tends to side with the People Power Party, because even though it includes members of the People's Alliance for Democracy, it also has former Thai Rak Thai member Somsak Thepsuthin.

On the post-election coalition government, Dr Jantana sees this as a result of the 2007 Constitution. Another factor was the dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai Party, which was previously the only strong party. After the Thaksin government was overthrown in the coup, former members of the Thai Rak Thai Party split up into several small parties. But in the end, when you look at the past nature of Thai politicians, these parties tend to go back to their old ways - they will gravitate to the power centre of the former Thai Rak Thai Party, i.e. the People Power Party.

When asked if the election will end or reduce the role of the Council for National Security (CNS), Dr Jantana does not see that the CNS can withdraw because of what they were trying to achieve over the former power centre. They need to find an accommodation with the former power that is trying to make a come-back. At the same time, they will adapt in order to survive under the current power structure. They are looking for institutions to safeguard their power and a replacement to protect the real power. Look how Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin changed his role from head of the CNS to Deputy Prime Minister and the creation of the Pue Pandin Party like the Samakkee Dhamma Party at the time of the National Peace-Keeping Council (NPKC).

Dr Jantana also said that there is no way that Thaksin will disappear from Thai society, firstly because he has to struggle to get back to power. It has to be seen how, if the People Power Party can form the next government, he can make a deal with the various independent agencies. A second issue arises from his use of populist policies. It is noticeable that there have been almost no reports of vote-buying by the People Power Party. They don't need to do this because the People Power Party has the capital of its populist policies and the ‘Thaksin Come Back' slogan to give villagers hope.

People should keep their eyes on how policies declared before the election can be implemented, like the Democrats' 99 day programme. This needs to be followed up. Whether it is the Democrat Party or the People Power Party, populist policies will have to be stressed in order to build faith with society and the people, especially in the economic system. Building trust and building faith are things that both sides really have to do in terms of policy. We fear that these will become give-away loss-leader policies, meaning that the long-term costs to the nation will have to be borne later.

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1 Translator's note: Chiang Mai Constituency 1 returned 3 MPs, so each voter could vote for 3 of the candidates. Each party put up 3 candidates, but voters were free to cross party lines.