Thai scientists reported some grim scenarios of the impact of climate change on Thailand in the next 50 years in a seminar organized by the National Economic and Social Advisory Council on Sept 28, 2007.

Future extreme weather, shorter winters and longer droughts

Dr. Anond Snidvongs Na Ayutthaya, System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), said that a study found that over the next 30-50 years the average rainfall will increase slightly, but the contrast between years with high and low rainfall will be extreme. Results from a computerized climate model indicates an increase in average rainfall due to stronger monsoon winds, shorter winters, longer dry seasons, and a 2-3 degrees Celsius increase in average temperature.

Bangkok will be flooded due to several factors: the melting of polar ice during the next 50 years resulting in a sea level rise of 20-30 centimetres; a 0.1% expansion of the upper layer of the oceans adding another 20 centimetres; and stronger winds in winter from the Northeast bringing more water from the China Sea.

Therefore, in the next 50 years the sea level will probably rise by 1 meter, and it will adversely affect coastal areas, especially low-lying Bangkok and its surroundings. Valuable coastal lands will be eroded, and the eco-system will change. Water drainage will become more difficult. And the sea water will affect sources of drinking water.

Animals and plants cannot keep up with rapid changes of temperature

Dr Kansee Bunprakob, a biologist from Ramkhamhaeng University, said that the reproduction of living beings needs appropriate temperatures. Animals will move to find appropriate environments. Now the temperature is changing so rapidly--increasing 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius in 100 years, that living beings cannot keep pace. Natural habitats have been interrupted due to urbanization. Crop yields will decrease. For example, an experiment in the Philippines found that temperature in paddy fields affects cross-pollination, resulting in seedless paddy ears. She suggests paddy species should be collected and cross-bred with selected wild rice species to produce new breeds that are robust to high temperatures and drought.

Wild fires, floods, earthquakes, and droughts

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Thanawat Jarupongsakun, a geologist from Chulalongkorn University, said that climate change causes global weather anomalies. The impacts of floods, earthquakes, and droughts will increase in the future and affect the whole system of water management. El Nino will result in floods and landslides, while ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) will result in droughts in all regions of the country, and cause wildfires.

833 trees planted to absorb CO2 emission from one car

Dr Jirapon Sinthunava of Mahidol University's Environment and Resources Faculty said that an average car travelling 25,000 kilometres a year and emitting 2.5 kilograms of CO2 from 1 litre of gasoline for a distance of 8.3 kilometres produces 7,500 kilograms of CO2 per year. One tree can absorb 9 kilograms of CO2 in a year; therefore, it needs 833 new trees for one car per year.

Translated by Ponglert Pongwanan