The phenomenon of red or "vote no" zones in the upper North cannot help but point to the existence of the residual powers. It had the media, academics, foreign countries, the military and even some people inside the current government thinking about the former PM, exiled in a distant country. The referendum has been interpreted as the liberation of Thai Rak Thai folk from their fears. This will simply increase the tension for the next election.

The "no" vote phenomenon here could not be entirely attributed to the influence of the former government. Along with the military domination of the political situation the sluggish performance of the current administration, the essence of the 2007 Constitution was definitely one of the reasons that prompted people in the upper North to vote "no".

It is not absolutely clear which reason has most weight.

But under the magnifying glass, we can see which areas are still dominated by the old powers, and which by the new powers.

At a national level, even though the charter managed to gain the approval of 14 million voters, around ten million opted to reject it. And it should not be forgotten that there around 20 million people chose not vote.

Of 76 provinces, 24 voted to reject the draft constitution; 17 in the Northeast and seven in the North.

In the eight provinces of the upper North, a prominent stronghold of the TRT party, seven provinces rejected the draft constitution. Of course, in Chiang Mai, the most important constituency for Thaksin, it would be surprising if we did not see voters clad in red cast their votes and the distribution in some popular markets of fliers that distorted the essence of the draft constitution.

As in previous elections, voter turn-out in Chiang Mai was as high as 70%, and the no votes simply outnumbered yes votes by almost a hundred thousand with 22,000 invalid ballots. This is an interesting fact.

At the district level, 17 districts saw the "no" votes outnumber the "yes" votes. But we have to look more closely among the other seven districts which voted for the draft constitution.

These are Chiang Dao, Phrao, Fang, Mae Taeng, Wiang Haeng, Samoeng, and Omkoi. These have highlander majorities with the minority lowlanders who act as a mouthpiece for the government and defecting politicians who still hold enough power to influence their decisions.

A District Chief Officer in one district where the yes votes were higher told us that he campaigned for votes by calling regular meetings of the Tambon Administration Organizations and Tambon and village heads. He told them to use their brains and logic well and place the utmost importance on showing gratitude to their motherland rather than to certain individuals. There were advised to look back four or five years to see what has been happening in the country. He cited the King's words, asking people to support good figures to rule the country. And all this had a great impact on the highlanders, many of whom have just recently been granted Thai nationality. He also pointed out some weaknesses and strengths of the draft constitution, pointing out to them the implications for their daily lives. With this information, the villagers would become more resolute in their decision making. Unlike in the previous election, they should be assertive enough to express their agreement with the draft constitution, even though a lot of leaflets had been distributed in the area to dissuade them from accepting it.

The District Chief Officer maintains that some people still owed some gratitude to the former power, and financial support had been arranged by former MPs in the area through their usual networks to pay for food at their meetings. The result depended on how intensely the government campaigned to raise people's awareness and how much they reached out to voters.

Another District Chief Officer in a district which substantially rejected the draft constitution told us that he campaigned for "yes" votes through calling meetings of local leaders and local groups, who in turn called their own meetings in their areas. He did not see any former MPs playing any tricks in his district.

The higher "no" votes among urban constituencies and the middle classes such as in Mueang, Hang Dong and San Sai districts, were, according to academics, partly because they received information from both sides concerning the draft constitution. But it is admitted that the draft constitution itself, coupled with the economic situation and the performance of the current administration, have more or less led to dissatisfaction with the constitution.

Sawing Tan-ood, a member of the Constitution Drafting Council (CDC), believes that many factors played a role in the referendum. But it has to be admitted that in many areas only a fraction of people discussed the contents of the draft constitution. The referendum was seen as a contest between political powers, mixed up with the satisfaction voters had with the work of the previous government and the unhappiness they feel toward the current government and the coup. But the voter turn-out was pleasing enough, according to him. Despite being a stronghold of the previous government, Chiang Mai saw a small margin of "no" votes over "yes" votes, so that should be attributed to the fact that the CDC members have done their best.

In other provinces, during the "dog howling night" before referendum day, the referendum resembled previous elections. Local leaders and TOA members rampaged to mobilize local folk to vote, as the government had been doing. Issues of religion (the campaign to install Buddhism as the national religion had been rejected by the National Legislative Assembly) came into play, as did rumours that the gold cards (which guarantee access to free medical health care) would be revoked if the draft constitution was accepted, etc. At least five different kinds of leaflets were distributed. The result was that in Phrae province, only one district voted to accept the draft constitution. In Lampang, 11 districts went for the charter, and the other two rejected it including Chae Hom and Mae Mo. In Phayao, of seven districts and two branch districts, only two voted to endorse the charter.

Mae Fa Luang was the only district in Chiang Rai that voted to accept the draft charter, perhaps because the district is inhabited mostly by hill tribe people. But for the entire province, the votes to reject the draft charter were almost 150,000 higher than the votes for. In Nan, all 16 districts voted en masse to reject the draft charter. And Mae Hong Son was the only province in the Upper North which saw the number of accepters almost two times higher than the rejecters. This marked a noted phenomenon.

There are many things to learn from the referendum. Looking at it in conjunction with the past and present political situation, we can see the depth of power belonging to various factions.

Judging from the referendum, the contest of power between the CNS and the old power is undeniable. The 2007 Constitution is perceived as being the "CNS Constitution" whereas the 1997 Constitution, despite being based on public participation, could be dubbed the "Thaksin Constitution" since he was able to gain control and harness it for his own interests without being subject to any checks or balances.

Therefore, the referendum was simply a power contest between the CNS and Thaksin with the voters as the referee. And the result was a victory for the CNS even though it was marginal. Also, although Thaksin looked as if he was defeated, but on a closer look, it could be said that he won.

24 provinces countrywide rejected the draft charter including seven provinces in the North (Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Phrae, Nan, Phayao, Lamphun, and Lampang), and 17 in the Northeast (Surin, Sri Sa Ket, Ubon Ratchathani, Nong Bua Lamphu, Khon Kaen, Udon Thani, Loei, Nong Khai, Mahasarakham, Roi Et, Kalasin, Sakon Nakhon, Nakhon Phanom and Mukdahan.

We could look at the election to be held at the end of this year in terms of the total number of MPs in the 2005 election (400), which were divided between Bangkok (37), Central Plains (97), South (54), Northeast (136) and North (76). And the number of seats in the rejectionist provinces constitutes more than a half of the total number of MPs. The former power cannot be underestimated.

It is very likely that in the next general election, the old power faction may retain their seats in parliament. This may change, though, because of the new political parties that will be formed within 30 days of the referendum. Will there be any other strong candidates to challenge the former MPs of the old power? Whatever happens, the price of former MPs who control votes in the red zones will certain skyrocket.