Following Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s dissolution of the House of Representatives, several prominent public figures and academics have shared their perspectives on the challenges ahead as Thailand’s political parties prepare for the election.

On Friday (12 December), Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a professor of political science at Kyoto University, published an analysis of the country’s three main parties: Bhumjaithai, People’s Party, and Pheu Thai.

With respect to the first, he noted that as its head, Anutin, is now the caretaker PM, it has an advantage in the run up to the elections. Pavin feels the Party’s strengths lie in its current policies on issues like cannabis legalisation and addressing the cost of living, which appeal to local constituencies.

He also thinks that the party has gained huge support from conservatives due to its political stance, particularly with respect to the monarchy. Finally,  as Anutin excels at stirring nationalist sentiment, as seen during the border clashes with Cambodia, Pavin anticipates that his tough stance will figure in the electoral campaign.

On the downside, Pavin believes that Bhumjathai’s political legitimacy is lacking in the long run, due to its deal with the People’s Party, and its lacklustre handling of national crises, such as flooding in the South and SEA Games management. In terms of policy, the party has also tended to focus on short-term rather than long-term solutions, and its refusal to consider amending the royal defamation law may cost it support among voters seeking reform. In addition, Pavin feels that Anutin’s alleged links to scam networks may have tainted his image.

As for the People’s Party, the professor believes that it has the clearest ideological identity and strong support from younger voters and those seeking structural change.

Its core policy is to push for a constitutional amendment. Its commitment to monarchy reform has also remained firm even though the Constitutional Court ruled that efforts to change the royal defamation law constitute an attempt to overthrow the government, a ruling that forced the party to remove the policy from its core platform.

According to Pavin, the party’s principal weakness stems from its support for Anutin as a PM on the condition that the House be dissolved within four months. The move was seen as a political deal that undermined its credibility as a party opposing the old power structure. Some supporters expressed disappointment that it compromised with a rival.

In addition, the party is at risk of facing dissolution as a consequence of previous Constitutional Court rulings and it lost some credibility by playing along with nationalist sentiment, rather than focussing on diplomatic solutions, during the Thailand-Cambodia clashes .

Writing about Pheu Thai, Pavin noted that it remains popular in the north and northeastern regions where its policies continue to appeal to certain groups of voters. He added that Pheu Thai has positioned itself as a centrist alternative, and stressed that its long-standing association with the Shinawatra family remains a key asset which still defines its political identity.

He acknowledges, however, that Pheu Thai suffered a serious legitimacy crisis in the aftermath of the 2023 election, when it was perceived to have surrendered to conservatives, betraying its former allies and the People’s Party. Thaksin’s return and the subsequent legal controversies have also deepened political wounds, prompting perceptions that the party prioritises Shinawatra family interests over political principles.

Pavin observed that the elections is being held at a moment when the country is facing urgent challenges, particularly flooding. All parties will need economic policies focusing on post-disaster rehabilitation. At the same time, widespread social threats like scams require strong legal and technological policies if parties are to gain support from voters.

The Thailand and Cambodia conflict is also one of the challenges. He believes that any party hoping to win will need to present comprehensive plans to address these issues.

Another piece of analysis was recently posted by, Atukkit Sawangsuk, a veteran journalist.  He argued that there is little likelihood that the People’s Party and Pheu Thai will work together again to form a coalition, due to People’s Party mistrust of Pheu Thai patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra.

Despite cooperating in parliament over constitutional amendment efforts, People’s Party leaders suspect that Pheu Thai support could disappear overnight if Thaksin decided to with draw it.

Prinya Thaewanarumitkul from Thammasat University’s Faculty of Law, commented upon the possibility of holding constitutional referendums alongside the elections. Typically, referendums must be held 60 days after the cabinet approves referendum questions, according to the current Constitution and Section 9(1) of the Referendum Act.

However, Prinya said Section 9(4) and 11 of the Act also allows the Cabinet to waive the minimum timeframe in case of unavoidable urgency.

Under these provisions, he asserted that it would be possible to hold the elections and the referendums at the same time, but it would require a Cabinet resolution. The approach differs from Section 9(1) where the PM can consult the Election Commission and announce the referendums in the Royal Gazette without Cabinet approval.

Somchai Srisuthiyakorn, a former member of the Election Commission, stated that a caretaker government, while facing constitutional restrictions, can still deal with disasters and national security issues, despite the fact that any use of emergency funds requires approval from the Election Commission, which must ensure such budgets are not used for campaigning purposes.

He feels that the referendum questions should have been approved by the Cabinet before the House was dissolved, noting that as a caretaker government, the Cabinet can now argue that it has no authority to approve anything binding on the next government.

Regarding the upcoming elections, he said the rules remain unchanged, with two ballots, and separate numbers for constituency candidates and party lists. Parties assigned the same number nationwide may gain an advantage from voter mistakes.

Meanwhile, in its statement, the People’s Party expressed its readiness to enter the election arena. The party also apologized to the public for not being able to make progress with the constitutional amendment.

“The People’s Party apologises … that we were not successful in forming a government and have not yet succeeded in pushing the constitutional agenda further,” it said.

During a press briefing, the Pheu Thai Party emphasised that it is fully prepared for the upcoming election to address urgent problems and lay a new foundation for the country’s progress.

The party will introduce its three prime ministerial candidates on 16 December under the campaign “Rebuilding Thailand, Pheu Thai Can Do It,” and the same day, it will also present its policies on the economy, infrastructure development, and quality of life improvement.