In Ubon Ratchathani, politicians deftly navigate a complex mix of ideological divides, local sentiments, and personal relationships in their quest for local administrative power.

In February 2025, most provinces across Thailand will hold elections for the presidents of Provincial Administrative Organizations (PAOs) and/or PAO council members.

Since some officials resigned before their terms expired, elections have already been held in certain provinces.

This round of local elections is drawing attention as political parties are openly endorsing candidates and fielding their most prominent figures—an unprecedented development.

As a result, the public is closely watching these battlegrounds to analyse potential trends for the upcoming 2027 general election. This is especially true in Ubon Ratchathani, where the stakes for the political parties are high.

“These PAO elections are very important. If a newcomer wins, the balance of power in Ubon will shift, and this will impact the upcoming municipal elections and the competition for all 11 constituency MP seats in the next general election,” said Dr Pratueng Moung-On from the Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University before the election.

Dr Pratueng Moung-On

Ubon’s political landscape is shifting. Traditionally a stronghold of the Pheu Thai Party, the area has seen its grip loosen in recent years.

In 2019, Pheu Thai secured 8 constituencies, while Bhumjaithai and the Democrat Party each won 1 seat. But by 2023, Pheu Thai’s hold had diminished to just 4 constituencies, with Bhumjaithai taking 3, Thai Ruamphalang 2, Thai Sang Thai 1, and the Democrat Party retaining 1 seat.

Ubon reflects broader trends in the Northeast.

Comparing the 2019 and 2023 elections, the number of Pheu Thai MPs dropped from 84 to 73, while Bhumjaithai more than doubled its representation from 16 to 35. Move Forward (now People’s Party) increased its seats from 1 to 8, Thai Sang Thai secured 5, and the newcomer Pheu Thai Ruamphalang (now Thai Ruamphalang) fielded 2 candidates, winning both seats in Ubon.

A victory in the Ubon PAO election could trigger a ripple effect across other localities, much like the first domino falling. The winner’s strategy could also provide valuable insights into the broader dynamics of local elections in other provinces.

Defying predictions

The Ubon PAO election on December 22 was highly competitive, with four candidates in the race:

• No. 1: Kan Kalptinan, the incumbent PAO president running for re-election, is not running directly under a party banner but as a member of the Pheu Thai Party. His influential family has long been a political powerhouse in the area and his brother Kriang is a Pheu Thai party-list MP.
• No. 2: Sitthipol Laohavanich, the outgoing deputy PAO president, broke away from his ally to run under the reformist People’s Party, which, as the Move Forward Party, did remarkably well in the last general election.   
• No. 3: Jittawan Wangsuphakijkosol, widely known as “Madam Kob,” ran as an independent. She is the sister-in-law of Weerasak “Por” Wangsuphakijkosol, often called the “tapioca flour tycoon” due to his extensive regional business ventures. Weerasak, a political veteran, has served as a sub-district head, a party-list MP, and a minister. He also played a key role in establishing the Thai Ruamphalang Party, which secured two constituency MP seats in the last general election. His daughter Sudawan is the current Minister of Culture for the Pheu Thai Party.
• No. 4: Athipatai ‘Sui’ Srimongkol, currently a member of the Thai Ruamphalang party, ran as an independent.

On December 22, 2024, the election results were finalized, with Kan Kantinan successfully retaining his political stronghold.

• 387,456 votes – Candidate No. 1, Kan Kalptinan
• 138,837 votes – Candidate No. 2, Sitthipol Laohavanich
• 322,986 votes – Candidate No. 3, Jittawan Wangsuphakijkosol
• 3,620 votes – Candidate No. 4, Athipatai Srimongkol

These results yield some interesting observations

Just 1–2 days before the PAO election, our survey in both urban and rural communities—including Ban Tamui and Ban Tha Long in Huai Phai Subdistrict, Khong Chiam District—showed support for Candidate No. 2, but voters did not believe he would win. Instead, they anticipated an upset victory for Jittawan over the incumbent.

"I chose orange [the People’s Party]. The younger generation also choose orange,” said Chaiya Disaeng, a 60-year-old tailor and former Red Shirt supporter, before the election. ”There's a lot of support … but I’ve calculated that No. 3 will win, they will likely get a lot of votes from the outskirts, while in the city, orange will get a lot of votes."

"In my heart, I support Move Forward, but I see No. 3’s cars everywhere," said a resident of Ban Tamui, an old riverside community in Khong Chiam District still grappling with the lack of land title documents.

“They’ve come here, and people are tired of the old stuff. We don’t see any changes. But in fact, I think that whatever the party or candidate, it’s the same. No one has ever solved the problems for our community. We only see them when they come to campaign."

Local voters in Ban Tamui, Khong Chiam district.

" No. 3 is likely to win this time,” said Sorawee Rittichai, the owner of the Samchai coffee shop and restaurant, a political enthusiast who uses a loudspeaker in his shop to air political discussions in the morning while customers enjoy their coffee.

“I don’t know them personally, but I’ve been watching the mass movement, watching Phichet Tabudda (DJ Toi of the Chak Thong Rop group), and watching the work done by Supol Fong-ngam, Adul Nilprame, Witoon Nambut, and Rampoon Tantiwanichanont . I think these are Madam Kob’s working team. The villagers want to change. This trend is strong."

Although running as an independent, it was widely understood that Jittawan unofficially represented the Thai Ruamphalang Party. Considering this connection—and the fact that the Thai Ruamphalang Party earned only 94,345 constituency votes and 14,029 party-list votes in the last general election—the party’s expansion of its vote base is striking.

The incumbent faced the perennial challenge of a public eager for change, yet Kan secured a decisive victory. This raises several questions: How did the Pheu Thai incumbent manage to win against the odds? Why did the People’s Party fail to translate support into more votes? What factors are driving the Thai Ruamphalang surge? And what does all of this mean for local elections elsewhere?

“It’s a different mindset.”

Dr Pratueng, who has studied elections extensively in the region for many years, sheds light on the decision-making process of local voters.

According to surveys based on tens of thousands of samples, voters tend to prioritize party affiliation when it comes to national elections, particularly focusing on the party’s choice for prime minister.

However, for local elections, the situation is different. Voters place greater emphasis on the individual candidate. People seek candidates they are familiar with—those they have seen actively working in the community or those who have received positive feedback from their personal networks.

Sorawee also believes that 80% of local voters focus on individual candidates.

"They think in a different way. National politics is about taking care of the country as a whole. Local [politics] takes care of specific areas. For the PAO, I will choose someone who knows how to work. I don’t choose the party, I choose the person. But if it’s electing MPs, I choose the party, not the person."

Sorawee Rittichai, the owner of Samchai coffee and restaurant.

While some voters remain loyal to a party in local elections, they may have second thoughts if they are dissatisfied with the individual candidate.

"I voted because of the party. This person, I do not like,” said Chaiya. “He used to be with Pheu Thai. I was confused as to why they picked this person. If it was someone else, maybe it would have been better."

As a veteran who fought on the battlefield at Chong Bok, Chaiya participated in the UDD protests out of anger over the shooting of Maj Gen Khattiya “Seh Daeng” Sawasdipol and consistently voted for Pheu Thai as a Red Shirt.

After his release from prison, he renounced Pheu Thai due to the lack of support during tough times. Witnessing its recent move to form a government with the establishment, he switched to the People’s Party. Many of his fellow Red Shirts also changed allegiance.

While he supports the idea of abolishing conscription, he opposes amending Section 112. As a supporter of the People’s Party, Chaiya also criticizes its recruitment practices in local elections.

"Let me ask seriously, can Move Forward [People’s Party] pick people?” asked Chaiya.

“They're taking losing PAO council candidates from different parties into theirs. What will people in the area think about that? Instead of bringing in the younger generation who have potential. Honestly, I really like Move Forward."

The selection of candidates by the People’s Party is determined by the provincial committee and the party prioritizes principles over individual candidates. Dr Pratueng suggested that this could be a weakness, as it disrupts continuity in local efforts. The consistency of individuals working in the field is crucial for rural areas.

Meanwhile, Pheu Thai is deeply focused on selecting the right candidate, agonizing over competing options. As part of a broader network, the result in Ubon will also influence decisions on which candidates to select for local elections in other Northeastern provinces.

"This is linked to the politics of Khorat [Nakhon Ratchasima] as well, in the negotiations and struggles within the Pheu Thai Party in Khorat over who should run for office,” said Dr. Pratueng. “There has been intense manoeuvring of forces, making Ubon Ratchathani a crucial battleground—like a proxy war.”

Party involvement

As our conversation continued, Sorawee criticized Kan for stepping down from the PAO presidency before completing his term. This meant that the election for PAO council members had to be held separately, adding to the cost of holding the elections.

“We talked directly about the premature resignation, which requires spending more budget, from 50 million to 100 million. We must talk. And, so far, we haven't seen any clear changes.”

As he went on, his statement also highlighted another critical factor in local elections: localist sentiment.

“In the case of using the Pheu Thai Party in the election like this, we also disagree. Actually, the party should rather not interfere with local politics. Let them play their own game."

While political parties must be careful when choosing candidates, local politicians also need to carefully weigh their choice of political party, as overt political affiliations can risk alienating both local voters and potential allies.

The message "local for locals" remains one of the most vital themes in any local campaign. Experienced political parties who understand this dynamic also seek the optimum level of involvement.

Despite Ubon being its stronghold, the Pheu Thai Party did not officially nominate Kan under its banner but instead supported him as a party member. When Thaksin Shinawatra eventually made an appearance, he was cautious about his level of involvement, as he initially had no plans to speak at rallies.

Even when he spoke, his speeches were restrained, focusing on his relationship with Kriang Kalptinan, who had consistently been a friend during difficult times. In doing so, Pheu Thai expressed support without overly provoking localist sentiment or jeopardizing its relationship with the Wangsuphakijkosol family of Jittawan —today’s rival, but tomorrow’s potential ally.

Analysts generally agree that Thaksin’s rally appearances carried significant influence. However, without the appropriate level of involvement, they could prove counterproductive, even in his political stronghold. While local voters may view a political party favourably, there is a limit to the amount of support a candidate can garner from it.

The rise of the Wangsuphakijtkosol family

The right level of party involvement also explains why Candidate No.3, Jittawan, did so well in this election.

Dr. Pratueng referred to research from 2019, when he interviewed Jittawan, who at the time held a prominent role in selecting candidates for Bhumjaithai. However, they were decisively defeated because of anti- Bhumjaithai sentiment in Ubon, thanks to its decision to join Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s government.

Learning from that experience, she concluded that party allegiance played an important role in local elections. This realization led to the decision to build her own political base, initially branding the Pheu Thai Ruamphalang party as a Pheu Thai ally with a local focus.

Before renaming it Thai Ruamphalang to distance it more from Pheu Thai and appeal more to localist sentiment, the party's logo and colour theme were so similar that local people mistakenly thought it was the same party.

However, Thai Ruamphalang has something Pheu Thai lacks: it builds on the northeastern aspiration of having their own political party. Thanks to its branding, Sorawee views the Thai Ruamphalang and the Pheu Thai Party as siblings.

“I’m confident that Thai Ruamphalang will expand further. Their mass is strong. They take good care of people. They’ve established themselves. They’re another viable option for the northeast. Why would they return to Bhumjaithai?” he said.

“Bhumjaithai is not trustworthy. We can see that the three parties—Pheu Thai, Thai Ruamphalang, and People’s Party—joining hands together would be enough. One day, they might join hands. Politics has no true friends or permanent enemies.” .

However, appearances can be misleading.

Dr. Prateung told us that although the Wangsuphakijtkosol family has officially left Bhumjaithai, information gathered from the field indicated that Jittawan still relied on its resources.

“The Bhumjaithai side was backing No. 3; the Pheu Thai side was backing No. 1," said Dr Pratueng.

Several Bhumjaithai figures supported Jittawan. In Det Udom District, MP Tuangthip Jintawet provided her with campaign vehicles and took the stage. In Warin District, Supol Fong-ngam also took the stage. In the Si Mueang Mai and Khong Chiam districts, former MP Cherdsak ‘Tee Lek’ Phokkunlanon made appearances as well. Jittawan also used the same canvassers as Bhumjaithai.

In lending support to Jittawan, Bhumjaithai carefully calibrated its level of involvement. Arguably, even if Bhumjaithai cannot secure victories for its own candidates, it still has a vested interest in seeing Pheu Thai lose its dominance.

"The anti-Bhumjaithai sentiment that was once strong in the area (during the Prayut era) has begun to be diluted, and the public has become more accepting,” said Dr Pratueng.

“Similarly, Pheu Thai's popularity itself has also declined. So Pheu Thai is facing enemies on two fronts: on the first front, the competitor who has gone directly on the offensive is Bhumjaithai, and on the second front, the competitor who is stealing their voter base is the People’s Party."

By leveraging Bhumjaithai’s  political machinery with localist branding while simultaneously aligning itself with Pheu Thai, Thai Ruamphalang has no clear enemies, maintaining a flexible political allegiance for potential alliances. This strategy appears to be effective, positioning Thai Ruamphalang for future growth.

A female academic from Ubon Ratchathani University, who requested to remain anonymous, believes that the focus should be on the work of Thai Ruamphalang politicians in their local areas, rather than on which political camp they belong to. The party has built a solid base by supporting communities, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Competition is always good,” said the academic. “And no matter who comes in, they have to work at a certain level. It’s not about who can throw money around and win."

In the area of resources, “it might be easy [for local people] to have a party of their own, but a small party not positioned in any conflicting camps, which focuses on working in the field and getting results. Then in the future, if large parties see the results, and the approaches are compatible, that’s another matter for another stage.”

Function of money

If the points discussed above hold any significance, they highlight the complexity of local voters' motives, supporting a view that is gaining more acceptance, which holds that “vote-buying claims are nothing but dangerous nonsense.”

The role of money in politics is often portrayed in black-and-white terms. Recently, Thais have referred to money as krasun or bullets. Regardless of the term used, money still equates to vote-buying, which is seen as immoral. This conversation often lacks nuance, leaving little room to understand the local context.

"Paying people to listen to speeches is not something that causes harm, because some villagers genuinely don't have the money,” said Dr Prateung. “When they take their cars out, there's a cost. The infrastructure is lacking. Public transportation is really inconvenient. In the end, they have to pay for transportation. They want to attend but they can't afford the fare. In this respect, I see this as something that can be supported.”

While there is money changing hands, locals can’t easily be bought.

"Distributing money is not a guarantee that you'll get votes,” said the female academic. “It depends on who the voters decide to go with. It's about relationships, as well as other factors.”

Local people, like the rest of us, are embedded within relationships, making them open to persuasion by those close to them. When someone is able to sway a large number of voters through various tactics, they become canvassers, or what Thais refer to as hua khanaen.

To win votes, local politicians may invest resources to secure capable local canvassers. However, local people can also be influenced through other channels. For instance, children can also sway their parents' or grandparents' votes, making them what Thai refer to as natural canvassers or hua khanaen thammachat.

“In the 2023 [General Election], the voices of the younger generation were pretty loud and effective. It’s not strange for other voices to be just as loud.” said the female academic.

“Relationships between people matter. But let us not diminish other generations’ relationships. They work under the same logic.”

This explanation is exemplified in a story shared by a villager from Ban Tamui.

At every election, each candidate's canvasser would come to speak with the family, asking for their vote. They were all relatives, so the uncle handled it by having each person in his household of four pick a different candidate, thereby avoiding the accusation of favouritism.

Admittedly, this system is far from ideal. Local politics should prioritize policies and principles over personal relationships and financial influence. However, achieving this requires greater decentralization.

“The PAO has limitations in designing competitive policies. They can't do anything groundbreaking or with a large-scale impact. As a result, people focus on the individual candidates and other rewards they may offer, because the villagers say that no matter who they choose, the policies don't differ much,” said Prateung.

“This time, the policies are no different—drinkable tap water, agricultural promotion, infrastructure, etc. If we want to solve this problem, genuine decentralization must happen so we can have real competition in policy."

“The middle class has it. They can say whatever they want. They have enough to live on, and then criticize the grassroots people. They don’t have it,” said Saisamorn Lakhonwong, a former village head from Ban Tha Long, Huai Phai Subdistrict, Khong Chiam District.

Saisamorn Lakhonwong

“When money is brought to them, they take it to buy things, to buy instant noodles for their children to eat. It’s not that they sell [votes.] In this case, there are people who bring [money] to give to them.”

In a sarcastic tone, he challenged the government to legalize vote-buying, suggesting it would reveal just how much money is truly involved.

“People say that when they buy our votes, they will go on to be corrupt. But I say that you can’t get away from corruption. Even if there is no vote-buying, they will still be corrupt. In my opinion, they will always have to seek advantages, but at least they do something for villagers,”

Village heads are widely known as traditional canvassers. However, he said that nowadays village heads can no longer sway villagers as easily as they could 20-30 years ago. With advances in technology, the villagers are now more informed, independent, and opinionated, especially the younger generation.

“People in the city say that out in the sticks they sell votes. I see it in the news. I think, don’t criticize them. They have their honour and their dignity. Sometimes, they take their money and don’t vote for them. Do they really know? Do they go into the polling booth to see how they mark the ballot? I don’t want them to be criticized like that."