Elected to the top job after her predecessor was unexpectedly ousted from office by the Constitutional Court, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thailand’s youngest-ever leader, faces some daunting tasks to restore trust and confidence in the government and win the next election.

The Constitutional Court has been generating political turbulence for decades. In its most recent political intervention, it dissolved the poll-winning Move Forward Party (MFP) and removed PM Srettha Thavisin from office. Many are sceptical that Srettha’s successor, Paetongtarn, has the ability to steer the country. At a press conference following the vote, the newly elected PM asserted the she would try. “I decided that it is about time to do something for the country and for the party. And I hope I can do my best to make the country go forward.”

It remains to be seen whether history will repeat itself, however. Her father Thaksin Shinawatra, who was removed from office by a military coup in 2006, has been at the centre of the country’s political turmoil for over two decades. Her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra was also forced to leave office by the military in 2014.  Her uncle–in–law Somchai Wongsawat, who was PM briefly in 2008, was removed from office by a court ruling.

From a PM’s child to PM

Paetongtarn is Thailand’s second female prime minister and the fourth member of the Shinawatra family to hold the top job after her father, her uncle-in-law, and her aunt, who was the first female PM in Thai history.

Given her political background, with her father being one of the country’s most influential PMs, her premiership will be under intense scrutiny.

Despite having been exposed to politics for decades, Paetongtarn only entered politics in 2021.  She became a Pheu Thai Party PM candidate after last year’s election. As she has never been an MP or held any position to prepare for the position of PM, her appointment has fuelled accusations of nepotism.

In an interview with PPTV, independent academic and political commentator Sirot Klampaiboon remarked that Paetongtarn has never shown the public that she stepped out of her father’s shadow, a problem if she is dominated by his influence and political style.

She insists that she is her own woman, with her own agendas and goals to achieve.  “I hope I can ask him for advice anytime … but not all the time …It is not possible,” she told foreign media in a press conference on 18 August after the royal endorsement ceremony.

When Thaksin accompanied his daughter into the royal endorsement ceremony, he had only just been granted a royal pardon, ending his parole ahead of the date scheduled on 31 August.

Returning from nearly 20 years in exile, he was sentenced to 8 years in prison, a punishment later reduced to 1 year, for convictions in 3 cases tried in absentia.  Detained at a hospital, he was released on parole and is now a free man, having not spent a single night in jail.

Thaksin still faces a royal defamation charge, however. He was indicted in May for an interview he gave to a South Korean newspaper in 2015. In a 19 August examination hearing, the day after his royal pardon was granted, Thaksin was seen wearing a yellow shirt, a colour symbolising loyalty to the monarchy.

He told reporters that he was not worried at all as the case is based upon an unverified video clip and was brought by coup makers looking to retain power.

Given that Thaksin has been the Pheu Thai Party’s patriarch, it is anticipated that he will have considerable influence on a government led by his daughter.

Now free, he makes frequent media appearances. He recently caused an upproar by speaking to the media about the details and direction of the government’s flagship digital wallet cash handout policy, as well as which cabinet nominees are best suited for which positions - matters that should rightly have been addressed by Paetongtarn. On Thursday (22 August) Thaksin also showed up at a public forum to deliver his first speech after 18 years of self-exile, discussing his vision for the Thai economy.

Tough challenges await

Paetongtarn’s rise to the PM position follows two political upheavals: the dissolution of the MFP and the dismissal of her predecessor Srettha, both of which sparked a strong reaction from the general public and negatively affected Thailand’s image on the global stage.

The two court cases constituted a judicial coup, with the rulings setting new standards which broadened the Constitutional Court’s jurisdiction. Prajak Kongkirati, a professor of political science at Thammasat University, explained to Prachatai why the judiciary’s interference with the executive branch, particularly its cabinet appointments, the PM’s legitimate right, is problematic. He believes the issue should have been debated in parliament by opposition parties or the legislative branch. He added that the Court also has no authority to topple the PM based on an ambiguous accusation.

According to Prajak, the decision was not based on the legal principles but rather relations between elites acting in an erratic manner to control their power.

In this context, Paetongtarn faces some daunting tasks. She must appoint a new cabinet, even though some of the nominees have controversial backgrounds. Caretaker Agriculture Minister Thamanat Prompow, for instance, was sentenced to prison for smuggling heroin to Australia in 1994.

Given the Court ruling on Srettha’s ethical misconduct, this must be done carefully. Sorawong Thienthong, Pheu Thai’s Secretary-General, stressed that the process of forming the new cabinet should be slow but sure.

Another challenge is the party’s flagship digital wallet policy, which has faced multiple delays and changes. Since the scheme was launched, it has been criticised for its high budget and potential violations of financial laws. Some people feel that the government needs a new plan B to boost the economy.

It was reported that Thaksin ordered the flagship scheme to be dropped, but Paetongtarn later denied the allegation, saying that her father has no power over the government.

The 10,000 baht handout scheme was designed for those who are 16 years old or above, with a monthly income below 70,000 baht and bank deposits not exceeding 500,000 baht. Opened for registration via a state-run mobile application on 1 August, it received over 20 million applications for payments scheduled to be distributed between October and December 2024.

After Srettha’s dismissal on 14 August, the Pheu Thai Party stated that it was committed to continuing the scheme, but it remains to be seen what the new PM will do.  On 18 August, she seemed to be looking for an out when she explained that “during the last year, … the country’s economic condition has changed. We must conduct a study and listen to additional opinions.”

On 21 August, several Thai news outlets cited the Deputy PM Phumtham Wechayachai as saying that the scheme will be adjusted according to changed circumstances and the new government’s policy will be announced  to parliament in September.

“What our party promised to the people will be delivered. Whatever we can do, we’ll do. When Pheu Thai makes a decision, we stick to it. We will proceed. But we will listen to the criticisms we receive, and take these into account,” said Phumtham.

Thaksin revealed in his public speech on Thursday (22 August) that “as far as he knew,” the scheme will start in September, and will focus on vulnerable groups with a 10,000 baht cash handout. By October, those who have registered - no more than 30 million people – will receive 10,000 baht through the digital wallet.