"Fifty-fifty", was the response of a key member of the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD) when asked about the chances of his red-shirt movement overthrowing Abhisit Vejjajiva in the not-too-distant future.

The figure is as much a guesstimate as it is a description of the uncertain political situation in which Thailand finds itself at this juncture in political history - fifty-fifty. Anything is possible.

Tomorrow, DAAD paramount leader in exile, convicted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, hopes his followers will fight to restore "democracy" by showing their force in a sea of red. Those who show up tomorrow will include many more than passive Thaksin supporters and those organised by former Thai Rak Thai politicians from upcountry. It will be an unholy alliance of many groups wanting to tear down the old political order.

First are those opposing the September 2006 military coup which, incidentally, ousted Thaksin. Some of these people were never Thaksin fans. This writer knows of one female member, formerly very actively supporting the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). But the coup convinced her that the military and the aristocracy who pull the strings were the greater of the two evils and had to go. Those with long-enough memory will also recall that DAAD co-leader Weng Tojirakarn was more than once on the PAD stage ranting against Thaksin too.

Many young reds who opposed the coup felt military intervention should have been consigned to history, as they had only a faint memory of the 1991 coup that ousted then premier Chatichai Choonhavan. They have a contempt for military adventure in politics.

Group two are those who feel Thailand needs to move away from a semi-feudal system where politics is orchestrated behind the scenes. They also want to see the monarchy institution truly outside politics.

A group of netizens, calling itself FARED (First Aid Red) have volunteered at the Government House rally site to offer first aid despite the fact none was trained in medicine. However, they have hired a nurse or two to teach them.

Some educated red shirts want to see a much more limited monarchy institution, like those in Great Britain or Japan, and have vented their frustrations on the Internet. A string of arrests and jailings, such as that of Suwicha Thakor, who got a 10-year term last week for lese majeste and for breaking the computer crime Act, have made it clear there are people unhappy about the current arrangement. The crackdown and the counter-reaction continues as police are eyeing to arrest more. With the Internet coming under close surveillance, one resorted to spreading attacks on the monarchy by distributing leaflets and was reportedly arrested on Saturday in Khon Kaen. These people pose a challenge to the commonly accepted belief that all Thais revere the monarchy institution and they want change.

 The PAD's New Politics, which proposed limited electoral rights, and their seizure of the airports, also provided a turning point for others who have joined the red-shirt movement.

Group three are fuelled by general insults handed down by a large section of the press describing the protesters as a hired lowly educated mob who don't know what voting and democracy is all about - only serving to make more working class red and angry. These people can be found riding the bus back home from rally sites late in the evening, hating the anti-Thaksin media as well as PAD's New Politics which they regard as insulting and elitist.

 So this is a war between new money, represented by Thaksin and his associates, some die-hard leftists, a young middle class fed up with old politics, educated as well as lesser educated middle and working class versus the PAD - which claims to represent the monarchy and moral politics and is run by the few and supported by the military, the bureaucracy, old money and old elites.

 Now that Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanond has been openly dragged into the feud through Thaksin's allegation that he's behind the coup, the battleground is even clearer.

 The PAD's momentum surged when it attracted people from many walks whom Thaksin had made his enemy during his abusive and egocentric rule as prime minister. Now the red DAAD have attracted many diverse groups who feel upset about the old powers and are willing to use Thaksin, and let Thaksin use them, to achieve victory.

 This unholy alliance is getting stronger by the day as more and more people feel emboldened by the sheer numbers challenging the old establishment. And it's definitely more than just about Thaksin or PAD, Sondhi Limthongkul or even Prem.